Núñez and the high line
Pep Guardiola’s teams have consistently struggled with balls played behind their defense. This is a consequence of their high-press style, which is also responsible for their success in regaining possession. This is a fundamental aspect of football, where a positive approach also brings some drawbacks and there is no definitive “perfect” strategy.
For the last 15 years, Guardiola has been facing a major challenge in trying to minimize risk. Some of his unconventional strategies, such as using a 4-4-2 formation at Anfield in 2018, playing with a back three against Lyon in 2020, and not including Ilkay Gündogan in the 2021 Champions League final, have been criticized for being overly complicated and causing unexpected failures between his second and third victories in the competition.
Since Erling Haaland’s arrival, City has changed their style of play to utilize his ability to quickly break through the defense. They are no longer relying on neutral passes and instead are taking more direct approaches. However, by doing so, they have encountered a new issue: in the Premier League this season, only Crystal Palace has conceded more goals from fast breaks than City.
Liverpool face a challenge when playing against opponents who are skilled at quickly regaining possession and transitioning into attack. Despite typically having majority control of the ball, Liverpool has managed to score the third highest number of goals from fast breaks this season. Many moments during Liverpool’s matches this season have showcased Darwin Núñez making strong runs towards the goal, with varying levels of confidence. However, there is no consistent pattern to what follows: his shot could miss the target, be easily saved by the keeper, or result in a spectacular goal like his dink against Brentford. This upcoming match could be one where Núñez shines with a remarkable hat-trick, or where he is criticized for missing multiple opportunities.
The most effective way to protect against counter threat is to be proactive and constantly monitor for any potential threats in order to prevent them from occurring.
Preventing potential threats through proactive and constant monitoring is the most effective method for countering the counter threat.
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It is difficult to fathom that Guardiola will not intervene to prevent this situation from turning into a one-on-one competition between Núñez and Ederson. With a track record of creative thinking, he could potentially come up with any strategy, without concern for the unconventional. However, there appear to be a few obvious measures he could implement.
The initial strategy is aimed at gaining more influence in midfield by avoiding direct passes to Haaland. Instead, it involves focusing on retrieving possession and utilizing a traditional tactic of making approximately 15 passes to establish a strong formation before initiating an attack.
One primary factor contributing to City’s increased turnover rate this season is Jérémy Doku’s playing style. While he has been an exciting player, almost half of his attempted dribbles (4.6 out of 9.4 per 90 minutes) have been unsuccessful. This is proportionally similar to Jack Grealish, who has succeeded in 1.6 out of 3.2 dribbles per 90 minutes. However, the difference lies in the frequency of these attempts. Doku has not yet undergone the same transformation as Grealish, who became more cautious and willing to make simple passes after joining City. It is important to note that not all turnovers are equal.
It is not insignificant that the only really big game for which Doku has been trusted so far was the Liverpool game at the Etihad, when Grealish was unavailable. Even though he has tended to play against lesser opposition, in league games in which Doku has played, City have conceded 1.29 goals per game as opposed to 0.69 when he does not. That suggests Doku will not start on Sunday which, with Grealish out with a groin problem, probably means Phil Foden moving out to the left.
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The role of Stones
One of the main explanations for City’s continued success in the latter part of the previous season was their discovery of an emergency midfielder, lost due to having a center-forward like Haaland who typically does not retreat, in the player John Stones. Stones, who frequently advanced from his central defensive position, effectively aided Rodri in the defensive midfield. In their match against Bournemouth two weeks ago, Stones went even further, occasionally pushing up so far that he acted as a secondary striker. The skillful advances from the back by Stones and Rodri were crucial in breaking through Manchester United’s guarded defense in their recent game.
It is reasonable to predict that Liverpool will not play defensively and that Stones will not continue with that strategy on Sunday. It will be interesting to see how far up the field he advances. If he stays back as a traditional center defender, City may struggle to outnumber Liverpool in the midfield, making it more challenging for them to establish the type of dominance that Guardiola prefers. However, if he constantly moves forward too much, it could leave Dias, who has not performed well this season, vulnerable against Núñez, which appears to be a potential risk.
Who is playing in the midfield?
We can expect that Rodri, Kevin De Bruyne, and Bernardo Silva will all be included in the starting lineup. However, if Doku is not included and Foden takes his place on the left side, what formation will they use? Silva will likely play on the right, which makes sense given the lack of alternative options to replace Riyad Mahrez. Another possibility is that Julián Álvarez will play just behind Haaland in a 4-2-3-1 formation. However, it is more probable that Mateo Kovacic will be substituted in, making De Bruyne the most attacking central midfielder and resulting in a 4-3-3 formation.
Dominik Szoboszlai’s return will help alleviate some of the pressure on Liverpool’s midfield. With injuries to Curtis Jones and Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister has been performing well and is expected to join Wataru Endo and Conor Bradley in the midfield. However, Liverpool will still struggle without Trent Alexander-Arnold, who brings a great deal of experience. Bradley has been impressive in recent games, but may struggle to contain City’s numerical advantage in midfield, especially when John Stones joins in.
Source: theguardian.com
