The Conservative Party’s most experienced members are prepared for a disastrous outcome in the upcoming local elections, where they expect a significant loss of council seats, despite the boost in popularity following the successful COVID-19 vaccine rollout led by Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
Rishi Sunak’s allies regard the results as the most dangerous moment remaining for the prime minister before the general election. While many of Sunak’s Tory critics have little appetite for removing him, some said they were asking themselves: “What is there to lose?” after a pre-election budget that has failed to increase Conservative support.
Under pressure to provide details on how he plans to fund the elimination of national insurance contributions by the end of the upcoming parliamentary term, Sunak has elaborated on the actions he plans to take in the budget. He announced that he is preparing to tighten benefits in order to cover the costs.
In May of this year, numerous council seats in England will become available, many of which were last filled in 2021. During that time, Johnson’s administration saw a rise in approval ratings due to the successful distribution of the Covid vaccine, while Keir Starmer was at risk of stepping down following the defeat in the Hartlepool byelection. The day after the election, a newspaper headline declared that Johnson was now aiming for a “10-year reign”.
An Opinium poll conducted for the Observer revealed that the Conservative Party’s share of the vote has decreased from 42% in the past to 25% presently. The drop in poll numbers suggests that Prime Minister Theresa May’s results in upcoming re-elections will be unfavorable, with some analysts projecting that the party may lose up to half of its current council members.
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The party leaders acknowledge that the outcome will likely be unfavorable, however, they are fully committed to campaigning for a general election that is anticipated to take place in the fall. A senior source stated, “Nobody is arguing that it won’t be challenging, but it remains the second-most significant round of elections this year.”
In over 100 councils in England, there will be available positions up for election. There will also be voting for regional mayors and the London assembly. Andy Street, current Conservative mayor of West Midlands, and Ben Houchen, current Conservative mayor of Tees Valley, are among those running for re-election. They have been significant figures representing the “levelling up” vision that Johnson originally advocated for.
Sam Freedman, who was previously a top aide to Michael Gove and currently serves as a senior fellow at the Institute for Government, stated that due to the projected shift in power in 2021, the Conservative party is likely to see a significant decrease in the number of local representatives and control of local councils.
There is a general understanding that the consequences will be severe, but there is disagreement within the party about the potential impact on Sunak’s position. According to a former cabinet minister, the threat to Sunak is not being taken seriously enough. This person stated, “It is obvious that the budget has not gained any momentum. Several colleagues are extremely angry. Their argument is: what is there left to lose? Honestly, things couldn’t be any worse than they are now.”
Though some have expressed disapproval of Sunak, they also acknowledge that most Members of Parliament are not confident enough to try and oust him as leader. According to a former minister, if Boris Johnson were still in power, Rishi Sunak would likely have been replaced by now. However, as there is no clear alternative who can effectively tackle current issues, people are choosing to stick with the current leader and hope for the best. This sentiment is shared by both MPs and party members.
Sunak’s supporters are keeping track of the party’s atmosphere and are certain that he will be ready to run in the upcoming election. According to one MP, even those who were not initially in favor of Rishi or were loyal to Boris have come to the realization that it would be foolish to take any action against Sunak. They may not fully agree with him, but they still prioritize winning. The time for considering removing him has passed.
Source: theguardian.com
