Good morning. It’s been another miserable week for Rishi Sunak, and it’s only Wednesday. The fulcrum of his despair is today’s vote on the third reading of the government’s Rwanda deportation bill, which is meant to be a populist, lawyer-thwarting solution to the nightmare of the government’s policy on Channel crossings – but has come under serious threat from exactly the hardliners it was supposed to appease.
Yesterday, two deputy chairs from the Conservative party, Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith, stepped down from their positions in order to support amendments to the bill. Along with 58 other peers, they voted in favor of these amendments. Despite this, the government is still expected to win the important vote today. However, this situation has once again brought to light the current self-doubt within the Conservative party. In today’s newsletter, I interviewed Katy Balls, political editor for the Spectator, to discuss the ongoing Tory identity crisis and what it means for the party’s future. Here are the main points.
Five big stories
-
Fujitsu, the technology company responsible for developing the faulty Horizon IT system involved in the Post Office controversy, has acknowledged its responsibility to provide financial compensation to victims. The European head of Fujitsu, Paul Patterson, stated that there is a moral duty for the company to contribute towards redress.
-
Iran has launched attacks on Pakistan’s land, seemingly targeting a Sunni extremist organization, in the most recent indication of widespread turmoil spreading throughout the Middle East and beyond. Pakistan’s foreign ministry reported two casualties, and called upon Tehran’s top diplomat in Islamabad to object to the “unwarranted breach of its airspace.”
-
French President Emmanuel Macron has announced plans to control the amount of time French children spend on screens, implement mandatory school uniforms, and potentially require all primary school students to learn the national anthem. These measures are part of his efforts to maintain a sensible approach in France and prevent the far right from gaining traction in the upcoming European elections.
-
An Austrian man by the name of Josef Fritzl, who sexually assaulted and imprisoned his own daughter in a specially constructed underground cell beneath his house for 24 years, is seeking to be released from prison, as reported by his attorney. If Fritzl, who is now 88 years old, is granted his request, he may be transferred to a nursing home.
-
The record for oldest dog ever, previously held by Bobi the Portuguese mastiff who passed away at age 31 in October, is being questioned due to doubts about his lifespan. Photos from 1999 suggest that the dog’s paws were a different color, leading to a review of his title by Guinness World Records.
The party is characterized by a feeling of decline and fear.
Last month, Rishi Sunak announced his plan to implement his Rwanda policy. The bill aims to address legal challenges to the government’s plan of deporting asylum seekers who arrive through irregular means by declaring that they will be safe in Rwanda.
Both factions of the party, the moderates and the right, vocally voiced their dissatisfaction. The moderates were unhappy because legislation is not usually utilized to present favorable information, while the right felt that it did not do enough to eliminate any involvement of the European court of human rights. Despite these objections, the bill passed its initial stage, but the right has threatened to cause further issues when it returns to parliament this month. Yesterday, members of parliament discussed potential changes to the bill, and will continue to do so today. The final vote on the bill will take place tonight.
That is the context for a poll published in the Telegraph earlier this week that makes painful reading for anyone in the Tory party – showing that the Conservatives are on their way to a 1997-style landslide defeat. In Westminster terms, this fight is a proxy for questions over Sunak’s authority – but also a warm-up for the bunfight over the party’s direction that is bound to ensue should it lose the next election. In Katy Balls’ piece examining how backbenchers feel after the poll, one is only half-joking when they tell her: “Ready for death.”
Sunak has had a disappointing week due to all of these factors, but there is potential for improvement later on today.
According to a poll by the Sunday Telegraph, the Labour party is projected to win a majority of 120 seats.
Katy stated that the results of the recent poll, which was initially released on Sunday evening, are not unexpected. She explained that in the past year, polls have consistently shown a 20-point advantage for Labour. However, this particular poll is larger than usual, causing concern for MPs as it provides a clearer picture of the potential outcome for individual seats. With 349 MPs currently in office and only 120 projected to retain their positions, 229 MPs now have a particular reason to be worried about their political futures.
Although the YouGov poll is valid, there has been much doubt about its origin and delivery. It was requested by an undisclosed group of contributors led by Lord Frost. Frost believes that the main danger to the Conservative party comes from the populist right-wing Reform party, specifically in regards to immigration. He also wrote an accompanying commentary to express this belief.
However, this statement is heavily debated: YouGov believed it needed to separate itself from the Telegraph’s implication that the presence of Reform UK is the determining factor in whether or not Labour will secure a majority.
In a thought-provoking article for CapX discussing the current challenges faced by the Conservatives, Henry Hill critiques the Telegraph’s analysis. Hill argues that the Conservatives are losing more voters to the left than the right, and as their polling numbers decline, the remaining pool of “persuadable” voters will likely lean more towards the right. However, this does not necessarily mean that winning a majority hinges on appealing to these voters.
Katy stated that Tory MPs tend to view this situation with their preexisting beliefs, rather than considering the best solution. She does not believe it has influenced anyone’s opinions, but has instead further solidified a feeling of deterioration and apprehension within the party.
On Monday, the deputy chairs of the Tory party expressed support for amendments put forth by rebel members.
On Monday night, two party deputy chairs, Brendan Clarke-Smith and Lee Anderson (above), said they would back rebel amendments aimed at blocking international human rights laws. That raised a significant question for Sunak over party discipline and whether they would be allowed to stay in post.
At the same time, Isaac Levido, a strategist for the Tory party, updated Members of Parliament on the results of the Telegraph poll and the party’s plan for the upcoming election. More information on this can be found in Katy’s article in the Spectator. Levido explained that the poll was requested by individuals who were more concerned with post-election outcomes rather than the election itself. He also emphasized the importance of promoting the message to voters that they should continue to follow the established plan, rather than starting over with Sunak.
Levido received a response from members of the backbench, at least. “Some of them view it as a reasonable approach,” stated Katy. “They don’t necessarily disagree with the strategy, but they question whether it will suffice. Some of those elected in 2019, based on the ‘Get Brexit Done’ campaign, may be let down that the party is returning to the same message as in 2015. However, the current circumstances are vastly different.”
On Tuesday, 60 members of the Tory party rebelled and three members resigned.
Following the declarations made by Clarke-Smith and Anderson that they would support changes to the legislation, Sunak was faced with the decision of whether or not their positions would be at stake.
Katy stated that Sunak typically tries to avoid confrontation. She believes he did not intend to lose Lee Anderson. However, if both Anderson and Clarke-Smith remained, many non-titled backbenchers would feel justified in acting as they please.
Ultimately, the government stated that supporting the proposed changes would result in their positions becoming unsustainable. As a result, both individuals resigned promptly. Additionally, Jane Stevenson, a parliamentary assistant to business secretary Kemi Badenoch, also stepped down from her position.
A total of 60 Conservative Party members voted against the government, marking the largest rebellion against Sunak’s leadership thus far. However, this was not a significant blow as the Labour Party did not join in. According to Katy, the rebel group does not have enough support and would need the opposition to unite with them, which is unlikely to happen when proposing changes to strengthen the bill.
On Wednesday, there will be a vote on the Rwanda bill.
There are additional revisions scheduled for discussion today – however, although Labour may not support them, they will unite in opposition against the entire bill during tonight’s vote. Katy stated, “This is the moment where individuals like Suella Braverman could join forces with the opposing party.” Furthermore, there is uncertainty as to whether No 10 has angered the rebels by not collaborating with them on the revisions.
Ultimately, despite any unexpected circumstances, she believes that the bill will probably be approved. “There is a possibility that, by the conclusion of this situation, if the rebels do not go too far, they will reveal their vulnerability and Sunak’s power will receive a slight increase.”
According to The Daily Telegraph, 15 members of the Conservative party are prepared to vote against the legislation today, and others are still deciding where they stand. If there are abstentions, it would only take 28 rebels to overthrow the government, or potentially even fewer.
A noteworthy sign of the temperature was expressed in a dramatic post on social media by a well-known rebel, Simon Clarke, who declared that he was not “playing games.” However, in this analytical article, Peter Walker argues that a key factor preventing a government loss is that “the most probable result would be a speedy election and subsequent political obscurity.”
Ignore the newsletter advertisement
after newsletter promotion
In this situation, many Conservatives would be angered by additional lack of control – but some have already abandoned hope for the upcoming election. For this particular group, the disputes regarding Rwanda and the Telegraph poll are ultimately about which path the party should follow while in opposition. “I believe more are considering the impact on their own seats this year than those who aren’t,” stated Katy. “However, there are also some who are already looking towards the future and attempting to steer the party towards their desired direction.”
We have also been keeping up with our reading material
-
The number of pregnant women giving birth via caesarean section in Puerto Rico has significantly increased. In her report from Bayamón, Coral Murphy Marcos exposes the concerning factors behind this trend. Nimo.
-
Lauridsen
In recent years, public restrooms have faced a decline in funding and availability in the UK. For example, Newcastle, which once had 80 public restrooms in its city center during the 1960s, now has none. Architect Alberte Lauridsen has proposed solutions to address the issue of limited access to public restrooms.
-
At the young age of 22, Adam Johnson experienced a life-changing event when he was struck by a car traveling at 55mph. This near-death accident resulted in severe damage to his body. Now, sixteen years later, Johnson opens up to Elle Hunt for the How we survive series, discussing his long and difficult road to recovery and the various creative outlets that have helped him cope. Nimo
-
It is possible that you are aware of the strong notion that there exists a large group of voters who strongly support a political party that advocates for funding the NHS and harsh punishments for paedophiles. Cas Mudde has written a thought-provoking article on a German effort to adopt this type of “left-wing conservatism” – and explains why it ultimately only reinforces far-right ideologies. Archie
-
If you missed it, Kyle Chayka’s in-depth article about how once diverse social spaces are becoming more similar globally is definitely worth reading. Using hipster coffee shops as an example, Chayka explains how digital platforms have contributed to a sense of eerie uniformity. No matter where you are, whether it’s Hong Kong, Bucharest, or New York, you’ll find the same simplistic coffee shops and algorithm-driven promotions online.
Sport
Emma Raducanu made a strong comeback at the Australian Open yesterday, winning a convincing 6-3, 6-2 match against Shelby Rogers. In another match, 16-year-old Mirra Andreeva handed Ons Jabeur her most significant loss in a grand slam tournament, defeating the No 6 seed 6-0, 6-2.
Newport will face Manchester United in the fourth round of the FA Cup after defeating Eastleigh 3-1. Luton secured a 2-1 comeback victory against Bolton thanks to Chiedozie Ogbene’s goal. Championship team Bristol City shocked West Ham with a 1-0 win thanks to an early goal from Tommy Conway.
The rugby community was shocked when Welsh player Louis Rees-Zammit unexpectedly announced his move to American football just before the start of the Six Nations tournament. According to Robert Kitson, Rees-Zammit is facing a difficult challenge, but his decision reflects how rugby is no longer the dominant sport in Wales.
The front pages
The Guardian’s top story this morning is about the Prime Minister facing opposition to his plans for Rwanda, as several senior members of the Conservative party have resigned. According to the Times, Chancellor Rishi Sunak is also facing resignations and a major rebellion. The Telegraph reports that 60 Tories have turned against the PM in the Rwanda rebellion. The i states that top Tories have quit in protest while Sunak has managed to fend off the rebels. According to the Financial Times, Sunak has suffered a heavy blow as the Tory rebellion over Rwanda grows. The Daily Express is clearly distressed, with a headline that reads “PM’s desperate plea to rebels: ‘Unite’ on Rwanda plan.” The Daily Mail is also concerned, wondering if 60 Tory rebels will manage to sink the PM’s bill tonight. However, the article encourages them to stay hopeful as it seems a Labour government may soon be in power for them to criticize. Moving on to other news, the Daily Mirror’s front page exclaims “About time” as Fujitsu takes center stage in the Post Office inquiry. The Metro reports that Fujitsu’s boss has promised to pay up, acknowledging their moral responsibility to contribute towards compensating postmasters.
Today in Focus
The Houthis and the growing crisis in the Red Sea
The UK and US have responded to Houthi rebel group attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea with airstrikes, according to a report by Patrick Wintour.
Today’s cartoon | Illustrated by Ella Baron
The Upside
.
I have some positive news to remind you that not everything in the world is negative.
At the age of 12, Hemesh Chadalavada became aware that his 63-year-old grandmother, Jayasree, had accidentally left the gas on in their kitchen. Although she suffered from Alzheimer’s disease, this was the first instance where he recognized the potential danger it posed.
Chadalavada, who has a passion for robotics, decided to utilize his skills to create a gadget that would aid individuals such as his grandmother. After five years, he is now preparing to mass-produce the device, named the Alpha Monitor, which can detect falls or wandering in those with Alzheimer’s. Unlike most current devices that rely on limited-range connections like Bluetooth or wifi, Chadalavada’s invention uses long-range technology. This allows the Alpha Monitor to detect individuals up to one mile away in cities and three miles in rural areas. Additionally, he is determined to make it affordable for the majority of people. Chadalavada states, “My goal is to produce products that can benefit people in India and beyond.”
Subscribe to receive a weekly compilation of The Upside, delivered to your inbox every Sunday.
Bored at work?
Lastly, the Guardian’s puzzles are available to keep you amused all day long – with even more options on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for both iOS and Android. See you tomorrow.
-
Quick crossword
-
Cryptic crossword
-
Wordiply
Source: theguardian.com
