Donald Trump’s threats of hefty tariffs on imports – especially from China – pose a “clear and present danger” to Australia that must be taken seriously, according to a former Australian ambassador to Washington, Arthur Sinodinos.
Speaking to Guardian Australia’s Australian Politics podcast, the former Liberal senator and adviser to prime minister John Howard, who was ambassador through Trump’s final year in the White House, warned that the US president-elect’s talk of slapping tariffs of 10-20% on foreign goods and as much as 60% on goods from China cannot be dismissed as bluff.
“If they go through and actually impose tariffs in the way that they’re suggesting, that will impact global trade and investment,” Sinodinos said. “It’ll be another downside for the global economy. And for us in particular, if China comes in for a disproportionate hit with tariffs and all the rest, it’ll flow into their growth, and therefore our economy as well.
“So for us, this is a real, clear and present danger in a world where tariffs are rising and other blocs – China, the EU and others – take retaliatory action. It’s not good for the global economy.”
Some have speculated that Trump’s tariff threats are a game of chicken, designed to extract early concessions from fearful trading partners.
“One of our arguments to the Americans would be your consumers actually, and your industries, bear the costs of tariffs, that it’s not a free lunch,” Sinodinos said.
He also warned of a possible entanglement of trade and security issues where China is concerned.
Sinodinos outlined a possible scenario in which China could make trade negotiations conditional on significant regional security concessions and that Trump, as a deal-maker, might prioritise an economically advantageous agreement.
“They [China] might throw in security and other things – because they have a tendency to put everything on the table in a pot and say, ‘Let’s create linkage between various issues … you know, we want assurances on Taiwan or South China Sea,’” he said.
The former diplomat noted that many Republicans, including in Congress, would oppose any concession on Taiwan.
“But the reason I’m raising it is – and I’m not saying it would happen, but it’s a scenario.”
Australia’s approach to the Trump administration must not be “we need you” but “why you need us”, he said, and the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, should be “authentic” and focus on the national interest, not try to find personal things in common that aren’t obvious.
“This is about why America needs countries like Australia and what we bring to the table, right? And I think that’s because his focus is America first. But we want to make sure it’s not America only.”
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The former ambassador said any Australian attempts to keep the US engaged in the Indo-Pacific region should be couched in similar terms.
“I think one of the main arguments to put is, ‘You leave a vacuum – the Chinese fill it and by the Chinese filling it, that makes it worse for you in terms of your security’.”
Sinodinos also backed his Washington successor, former prime minister Kevin Rudd, amid debate about whether Rudd’s historical social media posts scathing of Trump – and deleted this week – might disadvantage Australia. Rudd had built bridges to both Republicans and Democrats, including in Congress.
“I think that will stand him in good stead, and they’ve got to know him as Kevin Rudd, as opposed to just his tweets,” he said.
Sinodinos suggested it would be a bad move to suddenly withdraw Rudd because of his past commentary.
“The government also has to think about how it looks in Australia to do that, and what that says about how we are perhaps are appearing to be supine in our stance.”
Source: theguardian.com
