The Home Office has announced a new plan for Rwanda and the potential challenges it may face.

Good morning. Whoever it was that bequeathed the Conservative government its current dog’s dinner of a policy on immigration and asylum, be in no doubt: the people in charge now are going to do things differently! After setting out draconian new limits on legal migration on Monday, home secretary James Cleverly yesterday turned to irregular migration and the small boats crisis.

In Kigali, he entered into a fresh agreement with the Rwandan government aimed at resolving the supreme court’s ruling that the current deportation plans for Rwanda are illegal. The next step for the government is to implement the second part of their strategy to address the Rwanda scheme: passing legislation that would prevent future legal challenges. As Rishi Sunak finalizes the plans, set to be released tomorrow, he must make a decision on whether to anger moderate MPs in his party or those supporting Suella Braverman on the right.

The Downing Street schedule is centered on immigration once again this week. However, it remains uncertain if any of these actions will have an effect before the next election. In today’s newsletter, we hear from Dr. Devyani Prabhat, a migration expert and law professor from the University of Bristol, about the proposed solutions for the Rwanda policy and why they may not be successful. Here are the key points.

Five big stories

1. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has resulted in severe destruction in southern Gaza, comparable to that in the northern region. The conditions are described as “apocalyptic” and have hindered any efforts for humanitarian aid. At a UN meeting, reports of sexual violence during Hamas’ attacks on October 7 were shared, with some speakers criticizing women’s rights activists and UN officials for not taking enough action against these crimes.

2. Climate change is causing significant risks to humanity as carbon emissions continue to raise the Earth’s temperature to perilous levels, according to scientists. The Global Tipping Points report highlights five crucial environmental thresholds that are at risk of being surpassed, and three more could be surpassed in the 2030s if the planet warms by 1.5C compared to pre-industrial levels.

3. The Guardian reported that Sellafield, the most dangerous nuclear facility in Europe, is experiencing a deteriorating leak from a large container of radioactive waste, potentially endangering the public. The decaying building’s safety concerns have caused strained relations with countries like the US, Norway, and Ireland.

4. The investigation into Covid | The enigma of Boris Johnson’s Covid-related WhatsApp messages has encountered a new development before the ex-Prime Minister’s testimony to the inquiry today. It has been revealed that almost six months worth of messages could not be recovered. A representative for Johnson cited a “technical problem” as the cause.

5. A large number of junior doctors in England plan to participate in another strike to protest against the government’s refusal to negotiate a pay agreement. They will go on strike for 72 hours starting at 7am on December 20th, and then again for six days starting on January 3rd.

In detail: The suggested agreement will hold a higher position in global legal standards – but what are its actual contents?

The plan to use Rwanda as a deterrent for small boat crossings was introduced 20 months ago, under four different home secretaries and two prime ministers. The government believes it would be an effective deterrent, but it has not been a practical solution due to the limited capacity of Rwanda’s facility, which can only accommodate 200 migrants. This is far less than the almost 30,000 people who have crossed the Channel this year. Despite this, the government continues to promote it as a key solution to the problem and shows no signs of backing down before the next election.

The supreme court ruled in June that the policy was illegal, stating that there was a genuine danger that individuals sent to Rwanda could face persecution upon return to their home nations – also known as refoulement. Cleverly’s visit to Rwanda and the anticipated legislation aim to overcome this issue and bring the proposals to fruition. However, there are valid concerns about the likelihood of their success.

What is stated in the recent Rwanda treaty?

In Rwanda, Cleverly (above) officially approved an updated agreement between the two nations. Along with a commitment from Rwanda to not send failed asylum seekers anywhere other than the UK, the treaty also outlines additional measures to ensure that this promise is upheld. The Home Office has stated that there will be increased responsibilities for an independent monitoring committee, and a new appeals panel will be established consisting of judges knowledgeable in asylum law.

According to Devyani Prabhat, the proposed treaty appears to be a complex legal framework designed to fulfill the duty of non-refoulement. However, each aspect of the treaty is likely to be disputed in court. Despite this, the formal nature of the treaty will give it a higher standing in international law compared to a mere memorandum of understanding. The issue at hand is whether the safeguards outlined in the treaty will be sufficient to sway the supreme court’s decision.

According to Prabhat, the highest court has utilized information from external organizations, such as the United Nations Refugee Agency, to assess the state of affairs in Rwanda. Therefore, a treaty alone cannot alter the circumstances. The UNHCR presented evidence to the court, highlighting over 100 claims of potential and actual forced return of refugees (the judgment can be accessed here). However, Prabhat noted that if legislation is enacted in parliament to address these same issues and is approved, it may be harder to contest in court.

What will the law state?

The specific details are still unknown, however, the following main ideas are said to be currently being considered.

Is the UK considering withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights? This is the most extreme possibility that has been deliberated, favored by the conservative wing of the Conservative party, and reportedly backed by immigration minister Robert Jenrick. The UK has been a party to the ECHR since its establishment in 1959, and is therefore obligated to abide by its decisions along with 45 other member states of the Council of Europe.

According to Prabhat, the UK’s departure from the ECHR would require parliamentary approval and six months’ notice, making it a lengthy process. He added that if the UK were to ignore this procedure, it would be considered illegal. However, there is a possibility that the government could disregard the ECHR’s jurisdiction over the Rwanda scheme, as suggested in Suella Braverman’s letter to Rishi Sunak following her dismissal. This would involve a clause stating that despite the court’s stance, the UK would still carry out its own actions.

According to Prabhat, it would be against the law. The Times (a newspaper) reported that up to ten ministers might resign if Sunak decides to do this. The government’s lawyers have rejected this idea because they are worried it would break the rules for civil servants. Recent reports indicate that moderate members of the Conservative party have been promised that Sunak will not pursue this option.

Is the UK government considering “disapplying” the Human Rights Act? According to reports, this is the option favored by Sunak. Sir Jonathan Jones KC, speaking for the Institute for Government, explains that the Human Rights Act has limitations when it comes to the Rwanda scheme. It does not give courts the power to reject primary legislation, but only states that it is not compatible with the act and leaves it to the government to take action.

Some Conservative members on the right side of the political spectrum have called for a new law that would not include the Rwanda program under the safeguards provided by the current legislation. This suggestion may be influential in persuading the supreme court to reconsider their decision, as it is through the Human Rights Act that the European Convention on Human Rights is enforced in the UK.

According to Prabhat, it is not possible to dismiss the act as insignificant unless it is officially revoked. He also stated that fundamental human rights are considered a part of both common law and international legal principles. Therefore, asylum seekers may still be able to invoke the Human Rights Act to contest their deportation to Rwanda, indicating that there are still legal obstacles to overcome.

Could the legislation officially designate Rwanda as a safe country? While this seems like the simplest solution, it is not the norm for laws to be passed solely based on the government’s viewpoint. Prabhat noted that a simple declaration in parliament may not suffice, but it could be included in a more extensive statute. If the bill includes specific guarantees that align with the treaty signed by Cleverly yesterday, it may hold more weight.

According to Jones, this approach could potentially be successful under UK law. It is likely that the courts would uphold this type of legislation if it is written in a clear and precise manner. This would likely prevent any legal challenges within the country.

However, it is possible that the evidence presented to the supreme court regarding the risk of sending someone back to their home country may have a significant influence. The effectiveness of the new safeguards will likely play a crucial role in this outcome. According to Prabhat, having an impartial human rights agency involved in monitoring could be seen as a form of safeguard. Yet, the idea of having British lawyers stationed in Rwanda to oversee the system seems impractical. It raises questions about whether lawyers with knowledge of asylum law would be willing to relocate and who would cover the costs.

Can any of this be effective?

The outcome is uncertain depending on the definition of “work.” Even if the government agrees on a series of ideas that can gain the approval of MPs, there is a high chance of it being rejected in the House of Lords. There is limited time before the next election to push the legislation through. It is expected that there will be additional legal disputes, and it is unlikely that the effectiveness of this legislation will be evident before they are resolved, which is also unlikely before the next election. If the goal is to discourage individuals from crossing the English Channel in small boats, this approach appears to be unsuccessful.

However, there are those who criticize the government and believe their goal is not to achieve success, but rather to use this as a divisive issue in their next Conservative manifesto by being blocked by the court once again. The effectiveness of this strategy, which relies on highlighting the government’s continuous inability to implement an effective policy, may be debatable. However, if that is indeed their intention – a claim that the government denies – then it could potentially be successful.

According to Prabhat, it is common for people to blame outsiders, especially if they are portrayed as inferior and unworthy. This often becomes a popular tactic before elections. However, Prabhat does not agree with the solution being offered, which suggests that the UK’s protection of human rights makes it vulnerable. She believes that the real crisis lies in the lives of those who are fleeing from war and persecution, rather than in our system.

What else we’ve been reading

• No piece of clothing is more expensive, to both the environment and your finances, than the one that goes unworn. Lately, I have been utilizing items from my closet that have been neglected for years. These simple changes, such as washing less and getting items tailored, to create a more sustainable wardrobe are very appealing to me. This quote comes from Nazia Parveen, who is currently the acting deputy editor for newsletters.

• The article written by Imogen West-Knights, published yesterday, delves into the events that unfolded within 72 hours after seven chimpanzees broke free from a zoo in Sweden. It is a heart-wrenching tale filled with shocking revelations, masterfully narrated. – Archie

• Kanwal

  When Sosa Henkoma was only eight years old, he fled from the violence in his home. By the age of 12, he was already in possession of a gun. He was then trafficked by drug gangs and experienced being shot and stabbed 11 times. However, he credits his experience of becoming a father, undergoing therapy, and sheer luck for saving his life. This is the story of Sosa Henkoma as told by Nazia Kanwal.

• Anna Aslanyan, a translator, is full of professional sympathy for her colleague who was blamed for including the names of two royals accused of racism in a Dutch edition of Omid Scobie’s book. “Translation is like rubbish collection,” she writes. “People notice it only when something goes wrong.” Archie

• Scientists at National Geographic warn that even a seemingly small increase in temperature could have major impacts on life as we know it if the planet surpasses the 1.5C climate target.

Sport

The Lionesses of England were unable to secure a top spot in the Women’s Nations League despite a 6-0 victory against Scotland. This was due to the Netherlands defeating Belgium 4-0 and advancing ahead of England in their group. As a result, the Dutch have secured a spot in the Nations League semi-finals and Team GB will not be competing in the football competition at the Paris 2024 Olympics.

Declan Rice scored a last-minute goal to give Arsenal a 4-3 victory over Luton in an exciting game. While Burnley had recently scored five goals against the bottom-ranked team in the Premier League, they struggled against Wolves and ultimately lost 1-0.

Amanda Serrano, the current Featherweight boxing champion, has given up her WBC title due to the organisation’s decision to not allow her to participate in matches under the same conditions as men’s boxing. This includes having 12 rounds that last three minutes each. Typically, women’s championship fights only have a maximum of 10 rounds with each round being two minutes long.

The front pages

The headline in The Guardian highlights the concerns of a UN official about the dire conditions in Gaza that are hindering aid efforts. The i focuses on the ongoing investigation into the handling of the Covid pandemic, with a headline questioning the high number of fatalities. According to the Financial Times, car manufacturers have been granted a three-year delay on tariffs for electric vehicles between Britain and the EU.

The Times reports on Prime Minister Sunak’s approach towards reviving the government’s proposal to deport migrants to Rwanda, while The Telegraph covers the same story with a focus on ministers who are considering resigning in response to the proposed law regarding flights to Rwanda.

The Mail covers the news of upcoming protests by young doctors, stating it as the “most unjust and unjustifiable strike by doctors yet”. The Mirror features a probe with the title “Concerns over cosmetic surgery during Christmas”.

Today in Focus

Boris Johnson versus the investigation into Covid

Following allegations of inconsistent decision-making during the pandemic, the ex-prime minister will now be subjected to an investigation. Aletha Adu provides coverage on the situation.

Cartoon of the day | Martin Rowson

The Upside

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Here’s something positive to remind you that the world isn’t completely negative:

Pangolins are considered to be the most heavily trafficked mammals in the world, particularly to Asian markets where their meat and scales are in high demand. For a long time, it was believed that this nocturnal animal (pictured above) was no longer found in the local area, with the last sighting in western Kenya dating back to 1971. Therefore, when a farmer named Fred Telekwa discovered a large, pregnant ground pangolin that had been killed by his fence, he was devastated. He is now actively involved in the efforts to protect and preserve this critically endangered species. Conservationists estimate that there are currently only 30 to 80 pangolins remaining in the country.

The Pangolin Project has been collaborating with landowners near the Nyakweri forest to make room for these animals. This is challenging for farmers like Telekwa, who have been clearing the forest for agriculture and building electric fences to keep wild animals away. To gain support and understanding, the group has been engaging with local residents and assisting landowners in removing the lower strands of electric fences, which pose the greatest danger to the animals. Beryl Makori, a project manager, states, “Our goal is to safeguard the remaining pangolins. We will do whatever it takes to create a protected habitat with a thriving population.”

Register here to receive a weekly summary of The Upside, delivered to your inbox every Sunday.

Bored at work?

Lastly, the Guardian’s puzzles are available to entertain you throughout the day, with even more options on the Guardian Puzzles app for iOS and Android. See you tomorrow.

• Quick crossword

• Cryptic crossword

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Source: theguardian.com