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Experts have issued a warning that ongoing destruction of nature worldwide will lead to significant impacts on food availability, safe water access, the extinction of distinct species, and the loss of cultural and recreational landscapes by the middle of the 21st century.
If humanity fails to fulfill their promises to address the five primary causes of the decline in nature, important natural systems could collapse around the same time that the human population reaches its highest point in 2050.
The Guardian consulted renowned scientists, Indigenous leaders, and conservationists worldwide on the potential impacts of not taking action against the loss of biodiversity by the year 2050. Despite the risk of 1 million species of plants and animals going extinct and the worsening effects of climate change such as wildfires, floods, and extreme weather, conservation efforts are now being caught in the midst of cultural conflicts in various countries. This has led to opposition towards environmental policies.
Experts from all over the world have cautioned that failure to act by the middle of the century could lead to extinctions, the rapid proliferation of invasive species (which often introduce new diseases), widespread plastic pollution, depletion of fish populations, and loss of forests.
Over 25% of plant and animal species that have undergone thorough conservation evaluations are in danger of becoming extinct, as reported by the IUCN red list.
Alexandre Antonelli, the science director at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, expressed deep distress at the ongoing destruction of natural habitats in his home country, Brazil. He lamented the loss of diverse ecosystems such as the Amazonian and Atlantic rainforests, the Cerrado shrublands, and their inhabitants including insects, orchids, fungi, micro-organisms, jaguars, and toucans that have called these lands home for centuries. The reasons behind this decline in biodiversity are evident and urgent action is needed. While science can offer effective solutions, time is of the essence.
According to studies, in order to prevent possible damage, humans must take action to replenish nature on a global scale, implement eco-friendly farming methods, decrease meat consumption, prevent the spread of non-native species, and significantly decrease the reliance on fossil fuels.
During the Cop15 summit in December, there was a consensus among governments to achieve 23 targets. These targets include restoring 30% of the world’s damaged ecosystems on land, inland water, coastal areas, and marine environments. However, governments have yet to meet any of their previous goals on preserving nature, and experts emphasize the need for urgent action.
‘One word: desert’
Sandra Myrna Díaz, a biologist from Argentina who was a co-chair of the 2019 IPBES report on the condition of our planet, stated: “In the last 50 years, the biggest cause of loss of biodiversity has been land use change.”
If these patterns persist over the next few decades, the quality of soil is expected to decline even more due to erosion from intense yearly farming, contamination from pesticides, and salinization. The amount of natural environment accessible to the general public will continue to decrease.
Scientists believe that over the course of the last 10,000 years, humans have removed approximately one-third of the world’s forests for agriculture, resulting in the destruction of crucial habitats like tropical rainforests that house a wide range of species.
However, specialists caution that distinctive dry environments are also in danger. Emma Archer, a geography and environmental science professor at the University of Pretoria, stated: “The Karoo landscape in South Africa is undergoing changes due to evolving agricultural practices, heightened mining and renewable energy investments, and the effects of climate change.”
If we do not have a better understanding and do not address the way these various factors are influencing this valuable landscape with diverse forms of life – including one of the most diverse desert ecosystems on Earth – the consequences will be dire.
Cristiane Julião, a member of the Pankararu Indigenous community in the Brazilian Amazon, cautions that changes in land use can have interconnected effects on biodiversity loss. Without taking steps to protect biodiversity, she fears a bleak future for both the planet and her people, summed up in one word: desert.
If the world’s economic system continues to prioritize profit and exploitation over the well-being of our planet and its inhabitants, the Brazilian Amazon, where my people reside, may eventually turn into a barren wasteland. It is crucial that we change our current path of development or else we risk losing our valuable knowledge, customs, and traditions that are essential for the survival of animals, plants, and the climate in our region.
Invasive species are spreading rapidly.
An assessment conducted by the United Nations last month raised concerns about the growing issue of invasive species, which has already cost billions of dollars and is predicted to worsen if conservation efforts are not taken. There have been over 3,500 documented cases of invasive species causing harm worldwide, largely due to human travel and trade. These species are also contributing to the severity of natural disasters, such as the destructive wildfires in Hawaii in August.
According to Aníbal Pauchard, a professor of forest science at the University of Concepción and a key member of the UN assessment team, Chile’s ecological distinctiveness will be lost by 2050 if no action is taken. This will result in a decline in the country’s suitability for both nature and its inhabitants. Approximately 25% of Chile’s biodiversity is exclusive to the region due to natural obstacles such as the Atacama desert, the Andes, and the Pacific Ocean.
According to Pauchard, invasive species pose a danger to the local environment. These foreign species that have multiplied excessively may take over the existing ecosystems, leading to the extinction of native species, particularly those found only in Chile, and greatly reducing the population of others.
According to Hanno Seebens of the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre in Frankfurt, the increasing temperatures and proliferation of non-native species may result in disease-carrying animals entering previously unexposed environments in Europe. Seebens stated, “As the climate continues to warm due to climate change, species that transmit diseases, like the Tiger mosquito, may expand their range to encompass Europe.”
According to Seebens, if there are no changes, the amount of invasive species in Europe will likely increase by two times by 2050.
Prof Peter Stoett, co-chair of the UN assessment on invasive species, has cautioned that in North America, without implementing stronger biosecurity measures, invasive species could pose a threat to human health, native biodiversity, and the economy. The assessment took over four years to complete.
The presence of invasive grasses will continue to fuel forest fires, while their spread along coastlines poses a threat to fisheries. Climate change may also lead to the expansion of zebra mussels and other invaders in the Great Lakes region, with particular concern for the vulnerability of the Arctic. To prevent significant changes to this ecosystem, there is a need for increased control measures.
Collaboration on a global scale is essential.
Experts predict that in order to maintain the current consumption rate, humans would require 1.7 planet Earths. Due to the increasing demand for resources in the transition to green energy, it is crucial for mining companies to develop extraction methods that have minimal impact on the environment.
According to Dr. Charles Barber, a leading expert on biodiversity at the World Resources Institute (WRI), the increase in mining for renewable energy will inevitably lead to the exploitation of the remaining biodiversity hotspots in the next 25 years. While these minerals are necessary for our energy needs, we must find more sustainable and responsible methods of mining in order to prevent harming the environment and local communities.
According to Unai Pascual, a member of the Basque Centre for Climate Change, the increase in population and urban development could increase the demand for resources if not properly controlled. He believes that effective management should prioritize allocating space for nature in urban regions.
Pascual stated that by 2050, over two-thirds of the estimated 10 billion people in the world will reside in urban areas. This will result in a greater need for energy to handle the increasing intricacies of urban metabolism. The demand for natural resources will also rise due to cities, posing significant threats to the well-being of ecosystems. Additionally, a larger portion of the population will become disconnected from nature, both physically and mentally.
Pascual warned that if we do not take decisive action to safeguard and improve urban biodiversity, we can expect increased and significant hardships for the most vulnerable populations living in cities.
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After years of excessive fishing of essential species for human consumption, the decline of fisheries is recognized as a significant danger by many specialists, particularly in light of the potential consequences of global warming. Dr. Jean-Marc Fromentin, a member of the marine conservation organization UMR Marbec, stated: “If we do not take decisive measures, the ocean’s ability to produce and the global fish catch will significantly decrease due to rising sea temperatures and acidification caused by climate change.”
The decrease will be particularly significant in tropical oceans, as wild fish play a vital role in providing food security for nearby coastal communities.
Palau’s President Surangel Whipps Jr, who also co-chairs the High Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy, believes that other nations can benefit from learning about his country’s cultural traditions. One such tradition is the “bul” practice, where fishing is temporarily halted to allow fish stocks to replenish, ensuring long-term sustainability for future generations.
He emphasized the importance of global cooperation, stating that relying solely on sustainability measures within our exclusive economic zone is not enough to ensure access to food, air, and water for the world.
‘Groundwater that can never be cleaned’
Experts warn that the accumulation of plastics, chemicals, pesticides, and fertilizers in natural environments poses a significant threat to biodiversity, requiring urgent intervention. Dr. Marcus Eriksen, co-founder of the 5 Gyres Institute, an organization dedicated to reducing plastic pollution, stressed the importance of taking action to prevent further contamination of crucial ecosystems.
When we released our global calculation of microplastic in the oceans, which was an average of 170 trillion particles, we also revealed a concerning and growing pattern. This amount is expected to quadruple by the year 2050, potentially surpassing the ability of Earth’s systems to handle such a high level of pollution,” stated the speaker.
It highlights the significance of a robust international agreement through the UN to address plastic pollution, currently being discussed. We cannot solely rely on recycling to solve this problem.
According to Federico Maggi, a professor at the University of Sydney, approximately 3 million tonnes of pesticides are utilized annually to manage undesired plants, fungi, and bacteria on global crops and fields. Out of this amount, 82% breaks down into smaller molecules that have not yet been fully studied for their impact on the environment and biodiversity. The remaining 10% remains in the soil, while 8% seeps into underground water sources.
The pesticide residues that remain maintain their essential function, he said, “hence reducing biodiversity wherever they are transported … reducing earthworm populations, amphibians, pollinators and many other non-target organisms”.
James Dalton, the head of the IUCN’s worldwide water program, stated that the effects of human pollution can also be observed in the Earth’s groundwater. He explained that we often use water without replenishing the underground sources, leading to a lack of recharge for the water we extracted and did not utilize.
We contaminate the water that we utilize, and a portion of the pollutants return to the soil. This eventually seeps into our future water sources, potentially permanently. In the United States, there are cases of polluted groundwater that cannot be remediated, similar to the situation portrayed in the film “Erin Brockovich.”
He expressed that the future will present tough decisions. He advocated for improved regulations on groundwater usage, more rigorous oversight on pollutants and their monitoring, and preserving certain areas of the Earth from development to safeguard the underlying water resources.
There has been a significant change in marine ecosystems.
Researchers caution that while climate change is a direct danger to human life, it also poses a significant threat to various forms of life on the planet. Henry Häkkinen, a post-doctoral fellow at ZSL’s Institute of Zoology, explains that seabirds in Europe already face multiple challenges, such as invasive predators and entanglement with fishing gear. In addition, the warming of our oceans is causing a major disruption in marine ecosystems. This is particularly concerning for seabirds, as many rely on cold-water species for food during breeding season. If these food sources disappear, so too will the seabirds.
Juan Lucas Restrepo, the CEO of Alliance of Bioversity International, cautioned that the climate emergency may pose a significant obstacle to the availability of food in southern Asia. He emphasized that climate change will remain a prominent factor in shaping the region’s ecosystems in the years ahead.
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Increasing temperatures, extended periods of dryness, and severe weather events are already altering the original environment where numerous crop varieties thrive … resulting in adverse effects on production and the availability of food.
The current situation poses a significant danger to the environment, society, and economy in this area. If this pattern persists, it could reduce access to food and lead to higher prices, leading to a rise in undernourishment.
Susan Chomba, the Africa director for vital landscapes at the WRI, stated that addressing the challenges of the climate emergency in Africa and its ecosystems would have global implications. She emphasized that without Africa, it would be impossible to solve the hunger and climate crises.
Unfortunately, we are currently experiencing a severe situation. Approximately 60% of the available farming land in Africa is damaged. This has resulted in over 280 million people on the continent struggling with food insecurity. In addition, natural disasters such as droughts and cyclones, which are caused by climate change, are undoing the progress that has been made in development over the last few decades. If we continue on this course, it will have a negative impact on the economies of countries and will also greatly harm the Congo basin, one of our major sources for absorbing carbon emissions.
Chomba stated that the key to hope lies within the 33 million smallholder farmers in Africa. These farmers are responsible for producing over 70% of the continent’s food and also contribute to exports. From Niger to Kenya, these farmers are making significant progress by transforming damaged land into productive farms. They are growing nutritious foods that promote biodiversity and act as important carbon sinks. This gives rise to a sense of hope for a better future throughout Africa.
The article was enriched by the contributions of the following experts: Josef Serttele, Joe Millard, Balkisou Buba, Rukka Sombolinggi, Cristiane Fontes, Charlotte Couch, Erin Matson, Terry Hughes, Stephanie Roe, Zitouni Ould-Dada, Eduardo Brondizio, and Chris Carbone.
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Source: theguardian.com
