NHS England monthly performance figures out today show that hospital waiting lists have started to nudge up again for the first time in seven months. PA says:
An estimated 7.42 million treatments were waiting to be carried out at the end of March, relating to 6.25 million patients – up slightly from 7.40 million treatments and 6.24 million patients at the end of February.
The list hit a record high in September 2023, with 7.77 million treatments and 6.50 million patients.
Times article by Nick Williams mentioned earlier (see 9.07am) is worth reading in full. Williams gave up a job as a Treasury official to work as an economic policy adviser to Keir Starmer when he was opposition leader. He then worked for the PM in Downing Street as an adviser on planning, infrastructure and housing until last month.
Here are the main points he makes.
While the government builds momentum behind growth, the path of public spending is just not credible. Not to mend creaking local government. Not to tackle rampant crime. Not to meet the modern demands for defence. And certainly not to fill the fiscal hole from sharply cutting immigration.
The bottom line is that taxes will have to go up. There are ways this can be done which are fair and respect manifesto promises.
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He says the budget should be brought forward, and combined with the spending review, to avoid “months of tax speculation and uncertainty”.
The government should instruct the OBR [Office for Budget Responsibility] to prepare for a joint budget and spending review before summer recess. Treasury officials would hate it – it is harder to negotiate on spending when savvy secretaries of state know tax is also in play. However, it would avoid months of tax speculation and uncertainty; spare the cabinet from defending unpopular cuts which ultimately may not be delivered; and offer an earlier opportunity to atone for past mistakes.
It will also allow the OBR to pass judgment on the labour market impact of the government’s proposed welfare changes. If they agree with the government’s expectations that more people will move into work, the parliamentary handling of the legislation will be easier. If they continue with their current assessment, then the government should alter the policy.
Members of both Blue Labour and the Socialist Campaign Group have gone further and called for Rachel Reeves to change her fiscal rules. This is seen as a free lunch, but it is an invitation to disaster.
No fiscal rules are perfect and all draw seemingly arbitrary lines. They frustrate because they are a constraint; that is their point. They are easy to criticise and have few advocates. Their purpose is simple but vital: demonstrate to those who buy government debt that the government will be good for it. To lose confidence is politically fatal. Remember, it was the bond market which brought President Trump to heel.
The government has also begun giving shape to its growth strategy. The revenue brought in by Matthew Pennycook’s planning reforms allowed more painful welfare cuts to be dropped, with more to be scored in the next budget and, later this month, the new shape of the UK’s relationship with the EU will be revealed.
The Times says Williams is referring to the government dropping a plan to freeze the value of Pip (the personal independence payments) as part of its welfare reform. The government is still drastically reducing Pip eligibility. But, for people who do get it, it won’t be frozen.
“five missions” announced before the election was for the UK to have the highest sustained growth in the G7. The figures for the other G7 nation, Japan, are not available yet, although they are likely to show the Japanese economy shrinking. It is only one quarter, but you can see why Reeves is keen to talk about this. She is giving interviews to broadcasters this morning.
But some of them may want to ask her about an article in the Times by Nick Williams, a former Treasury official who worked as an adviser to Keir Starmer on economic policy, and then on planning policy, from 2023 until last month. Williams says that Reeves will have to raise tax in the budget. He says:
While the government builds momentum behind growth, the path of public spending is just not credible.
Not to mend creaking local government. Not to tackle rampant crime. Not to meet the modern demands for defence. And certainly not to fill the fiscal hole from sharply cutting immigration.
The bottom line is that taxes will have to go up. There are ways this can be done which are fair and respect manifesto promises.
The next opportunity to do so is the autumn budget. This is also realistically the last opportunity to make a meaningful change that the public has time to feel before the next election.
Here is the agenda for the day.
Morning: Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, is talking to broadcasters about the growth figures on a trip to Derbyshire.
9.30am: Heidi Alexander, transport secretary, takes questions in the Commons.
9.30am: NHS England publishes its monthly performance figures.
9.30am: The Ministry of Justice publishes quarterly figures on prosecutions and convictions.
10am: Kemi Badenoch takes part in a Q&A with former Canadian PM Stephen Harper at the International Democracy Union meeting in Brussels.
After 10.30am: Lucy Powell, leader of the Commons, takes questions on next week’s Commons business.
11.20am: Keir Starmer is in Albania where he is due to hold a joint press conference with the prime minister, Edi Rama. Later he will visit British troops and their Albanian counterparts training Ukrainian soldiers.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
Here is the agenda for the day.
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Source: theguardian.com
