Local election results 2024: Tories expecting ‘difficult’ evening with counting in England and Wales under way – live

on North east Lincolnshire council has been quoted by Sky News as saying:

National politics are always a factor. All the seats are going to be close tonight because it is a low turnout.

Some of the issues that affect local politics are out of our control. Coupled with a low turnout, it does not look too good.

The results are something of a culmination of our successes over the past seven years and this is the backlash.

Meanwhile, councillor Simon Bosher, leader of the Conservative group in Portsmouth, has been quoted as saying it is going to be a “tough evening” with lots of people expected to vote for other parties in protest of the government.

According to Toby Paine, a Local Democracy reporter for Portsmouth city council, Bosher said:

A lot of it is probably not due to the work of councillors, it’s more to do with conflating it with the national picture …

Cllr George Madgwick, leader of Portsmouth Independents Party, said he is expecting a “disastrous” turnout.

“I think it’ll be down across the whole city except for one or two wards,” Madgwick said.

Some psephologists have predicted the Conservatives could lose 500 council seats – about half of those the party is defending this time around – but Labour sources have said the figure is too ambitious.

Blackpool South, with activists said to have reported large numbers of former Tory voters saying they would back Labour for the first time.

As we reported earlier (see post at 22:54), Labour’s national campaign coordinator, Pat McFadden, also highlighted the importance of Blackpool South, saying the “historic byelection” is the only chance for voters to “directly reject” Sunak’s Conservative party.

Dodds told Sky News:

The key election when it comes to looking at the overall strength of Rishi Sunak, I would say, against the Labour party is of course that byelection in Blackpool South.

It is a really critical place of course because in 2019 the Conservatives won almost 50% of the vote, so it will be really important to see what happens there …

The key thing is going to see whether Labour is moving forward in those areas where it is really critical that we build support before the next general election.

Of course it’s also going to be critical to see whether the Conservatives can pick up any seats.

If they can’t pick up seats in these elections, then they’re going to be even further behind than (former Conservative prime minister) John Major was in the run-up to the 1997 election.

Blackpool South parliamentary byelection will be closely scrutinised for signs of whether Labour’s national opinion poll leads can be turned into electoral success.

The Guardian’s political correspondent, Eleni Courea, has a useful guide on the seats up for grabs in the elections:

Blackpool South and police and crime commissioners being chosen across England and Wales):

Green party co-leader Carla Denyer said that she is anticipating “another record night” for the Greens, with the party boosting its councillor numbers for the fourth successive election.

More than 2,660 council seats are up for grabs, with the Green party defending just over 100.

Denyer said:

It has been a wonderful experience to be out on the doorstep listening to voters and understanding why their concerns over the cost of living, cuts to local services and the climate crisis are turning into votes for the Green party.

I want to thank every single voter who has gone to the polls today to vote for a fairer, greener country.

Our fantastic volunteers and candidates have been out knocking on doors, listening to voters and responding with a positive vision of what their Green vote would mean.

As counting begins, I look forward to another record night for the Green party. We have increased our councillor numbers at each of the last four elections – and I believe we can do so again.

That will lay the firmest of foundations for our general election campaign when we are going to do everything we can to get at least four Green MPs elected to parliament.

We know that having a Green in the council chamber or in parliament delivers for people, the community and the planet.”

The Greens have never been stronger in local government and will target Bristol, where they are already the largest party, writes Robert Ford, professor of political science at Manchester University.

seeking a third term and polls have put him comfortably ahead of Tory Susan Hall, despite jitters in Khan’s campaign team.

Following the closure of the polls tonight, Khan said his campaign and Labour activists “sent out a message of fairness, of equality and of hope”.

The London mayor said: “Whatever the results this weekend might bring, I am so proud of that.”

Conservatives, reflecting wider fears among Tories that they are likely to suffer heavy losses later.

Speaking to broadcasters, he says he thinks that “very high base” will “make the evening difficult”, according to BBC News.

Harper denies that this shows the Tories were more popular under Boris Johnson (under whose leadership he said the party experienced a “vaccine bounce” in local elections) than Rishi Sunak.

He is referring to a set of local council seats that were last contested in May 2021, when the Conservatives under Johnson were at a high point after the UK’s Covid vaccine rollout, and the party enjoyed its strongest performance since 2008.

Conservatives do not expect to hold the seat after today’s byelection, a senior party source has told Sky News.

The source said “the stars could not be more aligned against us” after the former MP Scott Benton resigned after being found guilty of breaching standards rules in a lobbying scandal.

A Conservative source told Tamara Cohen, Sky News’ political correspondent, that the Tories expect losses of about 500 council seats tonight, as we reported in our opening post.

Blackpool South byelection as “historic” and has singled it out as the most important “election of the night”.

McFadden, who is the Labour MP for Wolverhampton South East, said:

The most important election of the night is the historic byelection in Blackpool, caused by yet more Tory chaos and scandal.

It’s the only election today where voters have had the opportunity to directly reject Rishi Sunak’s party in Westminster.

It’s going to be a long night and the full picture of results from local elections may not be clear until over the weekend, but we expect to see Labour gains that show we’re making progress in the places we need to win the next general election.

Labour are the frontrunners to regain Blackpool South – which fell to the Conservatives as the “red wall” crumbled in 2019.

The seat fell vacant after the former Tory MP Scott Benton resigned after breaching standards rules in a lobbying scandal. Benton won the once solidly Labour-voting constituency in the 2019 election with a 3,690 majority.

significant criticism over the limited number of acceptable forms of ID, particularly the decision to allow documents such as the older person’s bus pass but almost none issued to younger ones, such as other travel passes and student documents.

The Electoral Commission warned last year that it was difficult to assess the consequences of requiring photo ID before voting.

Michael Savage.

Dorset, where they are aiming to become the largest party on the council, is controlled by the Tories. It would confirm a comeback in the south-west, on top of its progress in the “blue wall” home counties.

The party will also hope to take control in Wokingham, represented at Westminster by John Redwood, in west Oxfordshire, whose MP was once David Cameron; and in Elmbridge, where Dominic Raab’s Westminster seat is a top target.

The leader of the Liberal Democrats, Ed Davey, issued this statement after the polls closed at 10pm:

Davey said:

The message across the country today was loud and clear. Voters want an end to this appalling Conservative government.

People are sick of the Conservative party’s endless infighting, unaffordable mortgages, an NHS in freefall and filthy sewage being pumped into their rivers and seas.

They want change and they want to see the end of Rishi Sunak’s Conservative party in office. That is why, up and down the country, so many lifelong Conservative voters backed the Liberal Democrats today, because they know Liberal Democrat councillors will never take them for granted and fight for the issues they care about.

Eleni Courea, has an excellent piece about the key results to look for overnight. Here is a snippet of her explainer:

• Early hours of Friday

The result of the parliamentary election in Blackpool South will set the tone early on. Labour is expected to win back the seat, which fell vacant after the former Tory MP Scott Benton resigned after breaching standards rules in a lobbying scandal. Benton won the once solidly Labour-voting constituency in the 2019 election with a 3,690 majority.

Between about 1.30am and 4am on Friday, 39 councils are expected to declare their results, giving a partial picture of the overall outcome. Among the councils due to declare at around 3am is Harlow, a key bellwether town and general election battleground where all 33 seats are up for grabs. Keir Starmer went to Harlow, which is now Tory-controlled, for his eve-of-poll campaign visit on Wednesday.

Overnight results are also due to come in from Rushmoor, Thurrock and Redditch, all of which are Tory-controlled but which Labour hopes to take.

You can read the full story here:

Blackpool South. There are no elections in Scotland or Northern Ireland, and no local council elections in Wales.

Source: theguardian.com