A study has revealed that by 2050, approximately 50% of the Amazon rainforest may reach a critical point due to water scarcity, deforestation, and climate change.
The research paper is the most thorough one so far in examining the combined effects of local human activity and the global climate emergency. It cautioned that the forest has already surpassed a safe threshold and recommended taking measures to rehabilitate damaged areas and enhance the ecosystem’s ability to withstand challenges.
According to Bernardo Flores from the Federal University of Santa Catarina in Brazil, the primary researcher of the study, he was taken aback by the findings. These findings indicate a potential shift from gradual to sudden decrease in forest coverage occurring sooner than he originally anticipated.
He stated that the forest was already experiencing a decline in strength and diversity. He also warned that by 2050, this decline will increase substantially. It is crucial that we take action immediately, as once we reach a tipping point, we will no longer be able to govern the behavior of the system.
This requires international action because even a local halt to deforestation would not prevent collapse without a global reduction in the CO2
Pollutants that are causing disruptions to the Earth’s climate.
The Amazon rainforest has endured changes in weather patterns for 65 million years, but it is currently facing unprecedented challenges from drought, high temperatures, wildfires, and deforestation. These threats are reaching even the innermost parts of the biome, causing changes in its natural processes. In some areas, the forest is now producing less rainfall than it used to, and is releasing carbon into the atmosphere instead of absorbing it.
For the last twenty years, people have been talking about a potential tipping point for the Amazon rainforest. Previous predictions indicated this could happen if 20% to 25% of the forest is destroyed. However, a recent study published in Nature on Wednesday delved deeper into the issue, examining evidence for five factors that contribute to water scarcity. The study identified crucial thresholds that, if surpassed, could result in the collapse of local, regional, or even entire sections of the forest.
It is predicted that between 2050, 10% and 47% of the Amazon rainforest will face multiple disturbances that could lead to unforeseen changes in the entire ecosystem. This could also negatively impact climate change in the region.
The research concluded that in order to prevent this issue, a secure boundary that includes a buffer zone would be necessary. This will help limit deforestation to 10% of the Amazon region and maintain global warming within 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
However, the issue of overshooting has already occurred. According to the research, 15% of the Amazon rainforest has already been deforested and an additional 17% has been damaged due to human actions like logging, fires, and extraction beneath the canopy. The prolonged periods of drought in the past ten years may also have further weakened 38% of the Amazon.
Based on current ground data, proxy indicators of past patterns, and computer simulations incorporating local and global climate trends, the research identified three potential paths for ecosystems: a savanna with white sandy soil, a damaged open canopy, and a damaged forest – all of which could lead to increased risk of fire and drought.
In the central and southern areas of the Amazon, temperatures during the dry season have risen by 2C in the last 40 years. According to predictions, by 2050 there could be an additional 10 to 30 dry days and a temperature increase of 2C to 4C compared to current levels. This could lead to extreme heat that could be difficult for both the forest and nearby communities to endure. It may also decrease the productivity of the forest and its ability to store carbon.
The way rain falls is changing. In the last few decades, parts of the central and outer Amazon rainforest have become less wet. In the southern area of the Bolivian Amazon, the amount of rain each year has decreased by up to 20mm. On the other hand, the western and eastern regions of the Amazon are getting more rain. The study predicts that if this pattern continues, it will have an impact on the resilience of the ecosystem. Some areas may turn into savannas, while much of the remaining Amazon is expected to suffer from degradation.
2 emissions, and provides essential resources for millions of people
This will greatly affect the nearby and surrounding communities. The Amazon contains over 10% of the world’s land-based biodiversity, holds enough carbon dioxide to offset global emissions for 15-20 years, and is a vital source of necessities for millions of individuals.2
Emissions are responsible for half of the rainfall in the area and are vital for providing moisture to South America. The process of evapotranspiration from these emissions plays a role in cooling and maintaining the Earth’s climate. However, its significance and intricacies are not yet fully comprehended.
2 fertilization effect will be offset by future forest loss
The article mentioned that current computer simulations of climate did not accurately consider the combined impact of various disturbances, such as fire, drought, and land clearance. They also failed to account for the varying effects on different types of forests, the potential consequences of new roads like BR319, and the role of forest degradation in rain recycling. Additionally, it was uncertain if the potential boost in plant growth from increased CO2 levels would be counteracted by future deforestation.2
The strength or weakness of forest resilience is affected by changes in the atmosphere.
Existing models lacking complexity can lead to unexpected negative events, as seen in the severe drought of last year. According to Flores, the recent El Niño demonstrates the speed at which things are currently happening, faster than anticipated. This calls for a cautious approach in addressing the issue. It is crucial to achieve net zero emissions and net zero deforestation as soon as possible, and action must be taken immediately. The loss of the Amazon would have dire consequences for humanity.
Source: theguardian.com
