Despite clean energy being the main factor driving China’s economic growth, analysis has discovered that the country is not meeting any of its core 2025 climate goals.
China, which experienced a period of extremely fast expansion, is currently facing a deceleration that is having both domestic and global effects. While the government has bolstered the development of renewable energy, it has also invested heavily in construction and manufacturing, and is still granting approvals for coal power.
In 2023, China experienced a 5.7% rise in overall energy usage, marking the first time since 2005 that energy demand outpaced its GDP growth. While the Chinese economy did see a 5.2% increase last year, this rate is relatively modest compared to past rates of expansion.
2 emissions are projected to increase by 1.7%
However, despite a decrease in economic growth caused by the energy-intensive nature of China’s economy during and after the Covid-19 pandemic, carbon dioxide emissions have still increased. It is predicted that between 2021 and 2023, there will be a 1.7% rise in CO2 emissions.2
Between 2016 and 2020, there was an average yearly increase of 3.8% in emissions, which was higher compared to the previous rate of 0.9%. At the same time, there was a slight decrease in GDP growth.
The results were released in a report by Carbon Brief, which was carried out by Lauri Myllyvirta, a main analyst at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
2 are emitted for every dollar of economic output
The Paris agreement outlines China’s commitments to meet certain goals by 2025, including reaching a 20% proportion of non-fossil energy sources and decreasing the carbon intensity of their economy by 18%. Carbon intensity measures the amount of carbon dioxide emitted for every dollar of economic output.2
Generating one kilowatt hour of electricity requires the release of energy.
2 emissions are way off track in China.
Unfortunately, Myllyvirta’s examination revealed that China is not meeting many of these goals, mainly due to the high carbon intensity of their recent economic expansion. China’s CO2 emissions are significantly off target.2
According to Myllyvirta’s prediction, in order to meet the government’s 2025 goal, there will need to be a decrease of 4% to 6% in emissions.
The issue arises from the government’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic, where they provided economic support by implementing stimulus measures in the construction and manufacturing industries. This caused a shift towards a more carbon-intensive form of growth, according to Myllyvirta. Meanwhile, other countries focused their stimulus efforts towards households, leading to a surge in demand for consumer products and ultimately boosting China’s export market.
Myllyvirta stated that it is not unattainable to achieve. He optimistically believes that the disruptions to the economy caused by zero-Covid measures can be undone, and when combined with a push for clean energy, could effectively reduce emissions at a fast pace.
2 emissions
Approximately 1% of China’s carbon dioxide emissions.2
Last year, the increase in emissions was primarily driven by the production of environmentally-friendly technologies such as solar panels, electric cars, and batteries. While these products will eventually result in a decrease in emissions, some of the impact will be experienced outside of China through the export of goods.
One of the difficulties in comprehending China’s shift to renewable energy is that the figures in each industry hold worldwide importance. The International Energy Agency reports that China installed an equivalent amount of solar PV in 2023 as the rest of the world did in 2022, yet the country’s high energy demand has exceeded its clean energy growth.
Given the current rise in energy consumption, in order to reach the goal set for 2025, there would need to be a yearly growth of over 11% in energy production from non-fossil fuel sources. However, at this time, renewable energy production is only increasing by 8.5% annually. In 2023, China’s economy saw a $1.6tn (£1.26tn) boost from clean energy, which accounted for all of the growth in investment.
2 emissions per unit of GDP have
China’s goal of decreasing the carbon intensity of their economy by 18% by 2025 has only resulted in a 5% decrease since 2020. This indicates that the amount of CO2 emitted per unit of GDP has not significantly decreased.2
The target will require a decrease in emissions from 2023 to 2025 in absolute terms.
In 2023, the National Energy Administration reported that China had an installed capacity of over 1.45 billion kilowatts for renewable energy, which makes up more than half of the country’s total installed power generation capacity.
However, a different study released on Thursday by CREA revealed that China authorized the construction of 114 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power plants in 2023, an increase from 104 GW in 2022. China’s contribution to worldwide coal emissions exceeded 64% in 2023.
2 emissions must be reduced
After Xi Jinping, the leader of China, promised to “tightly manage” the addition of new coal power in 2021, the authorization for new coal has significantly risen. Almost half of the rise in power production from 2020 to 2023 can be attributed to coal. This is in part due to the belief among some thermal power developers and government officials that this period presents a chance to decrease CO2 emissions.2
China is projected to reach its emissions peak by 2025, despite the fact that Xi has pledged to achieve this goal by 2030.
Local municipalities, especially those in mining regions, frequently depend on investing in coal mines and thermal power plants to increase their gross domestic product statistics.
“The significant increase in the growth of coal consumption and approvals for new coal power plants, which has occurred since President Xi’s pledges in 2021, goes against the commitments made. China must take decisive action in 2024-25 to ensure they are not at risk of failing to meet these commitments.”
Source: theguardian.com
