After the nominations for this weekend’s Golden Globes were announced last month, there seemed to be an equal mix of cheers and jeers. For every egregious, and racially troubling, snub (Marianne Jean-Baptiste, RaMell Ross, Danielle Deadwyler) there was a pick that showed an embrace of a more international set (Payal Kapadia, Coralie Fargeat, Fernanda Torres). The attempt to “fix” the Globes after years of controversy seems to be an ongoing process.
In a year with fewer sure things than we’re accustomed to, who might triumph on Sunday?
Best film (drama)
It’s been a difficult race to get a grip on this year – without, say, an Oppenheimer out in front. The results of this category in particular will prove somewhat revealing as to where it might all end up. While critics, including myself, might opt for Nickel Boys, it’s probably a little too alienating to win. Along with September 5, it only boasts one nomination this year, suggesting limited appeal for voters. There’s slightly more love for Dune: Part Two, with Hans Zimmer’s score also getting a nod, but with its director, Denis Villeneuve, shut out, it’s unlikely to triumph here. The Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown is also an outsider, as a film more about a performance than much else, and so it’s down to just two, at different ends of the spectrum. There’s reason to believe that enough voters could opt for the Vatican-set thriller Conclave, one of the most universally popular films of the season, but I think Brady Corbet’s epic, and epically long, drama The Brutalist will come away triumphant here. Both films benefit from a topical narrative but the latter also has a grander scale, and more emotional texture, that will give it the edge.
Will win: The Brutalist
Should win: Nickel Boys
Shoulda been nominated: I Saw the TV Glow
Best actress (drama)
The age-old accusation aimed at the Globes, of opting for celebrity over talent, is most notable here, with Pamela Anderson and Kate Winslet pushing out Marianne Jean-Baptiste, who had been picking up major critics’ circle prizes for her blistering performance in Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths. The Anderson comeback narrative is far more appealing than her actual performance in Gia Coppola’s rather embarrassing misfire The Last Showgirl, while Winslet, a 14-time nominee and five-time winner, could get a nomination for saying her name, which might be more entertaining to watch than her stodgy biopic Lee (she also received a nomination this year for the intolerable HBO series The Regime). The inclusion of I’m Still Here’s incredibly deserving Fernanda Torres shows that again, voters are looking outside of the instantly familiar, while The Room Next Door’s Tilda Swinton is an outsider likely to see her awards chances start and end here. I could then see it coming down to two Globes heavyweights: Babygirl’s Nicole Kidman and Maria’s Angelina Jolie. Between them they have nine wins out of 29 nominations and either pick would be perfect for the Globes. It could go either way, but I think Babygirl is the film with more buzz and critical support (Jolie also missed out on a spot in the Bafta longlist this week) – so Kidman will probably take it home.
Will win: Nicole Kidman (Babygirl)
Should win: Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
Shoulda been nominated: Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths)
Best actor (drama)
It’s a tough category as almost all of the likely best actor Oscar contenders will come from dramas this year (while the best actress nominees will surely include more from the comedy/musical side). I’d bet that the five Oscar nominees are among the six here, with either The Apprentice’s Sebastian Stan or Queer’s Daniel Craig as the odd one out. There wasn’t much Globes love elsewhere for Sing Sing (no best picture or supporting actor noms) which means Colman Domingo is also unlikely while, as popular as the film might be, Conclave’s Ralph Fiennes doesn’t seem to have enough buzz (he’s also so reliably good in everything, he can be the kind of nominee who gets taken for granted). I think it’ll come down to A Complete Unknown’s Timothée Chalamet and The Brutalist’s Adrien Brody. The former benefits from the success of other music biopic winners at the Globes (such as Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody, Austin Butler for Elvis and Taron Egerton for Rocketman) but the latter will probably squeeze out the win. He might have been passed up for Jack Nicholson over two decades ago (before winning the Oscar) but his widely acclaimed comeback role in the second-most-nominated film of the night should finally get him a Globe.
Will win: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Should win: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Shoulda been nominated: André Holland (Exhibiting Forgiveness)
Best film (comedy or musical)
It’s a competitive year in a category that has often seen some much-ridiculed barrel-scraping for contenders (previous years have seen The Tourist, Burlesque, Red and The Prom here). The outsider would be Challengers, which, despite a Zendaya nod and the support of the internet, is unlikely to topple some more awards-friendly contenders. Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain will probably also suffer as a film that’s mostly seen as a vehicle for performances – one in particular which I will come to later. It’s really a category for the women of the remaining four films, all of which have convincing awards-season narratives. While The Substance ended up with more nominations that expected, it would seem the least likely to win due to its goofier tone, and even though Wicked is a perfect Globes pick, I think, like Barbie last year, it might be passed over for weightier fare. Which leaves it between the Cannes breakouts Anora and Emilia Pérez. The former might have more critical support, as well as the Palme d’Or itself, but the latter might have the edge, as the most Globes-nominated comedy or musical ever (!) and told on a far grander scale.
Will win: Emilia Pérez
Should win: Anora
Shoulda been nominated: My Old Ass
Best actress (comedy or musical)
As mentioned, it’s a competitive year for women in this category, which again makes this one rather difficult to predict. As adored as she might be by the Globes, with two wins and a further eight nominations, Amy Adams is the clear outsider here, given how Nightbitch was received. Zendaya will also have to step aside for her performance in Challengers, a film that arguably gained more attention for its male actors. Which leaves it down to the same four female-led films that will fight it out for the comedy/musical category. There is a convincing comeback narrative here for The Substance’s Demi Moore, with even the film’s naysayers praising her guns-blazing performance, while a historic win for Emilia Pérez’s Karla Sofía Gascón would be apt given that she plays the title character of the most nominated film. But I think this one will be down to Wicked’s Cynthia Erivo and Anora’s Mikey Madison. I could see Erivo easily winning the only major award for Wicked, but I think the effeverscent charm of the newcomer Madison, a best actress favourite since Cannes, will shine through.
Will win: Mikey Madison (Anora)
Should win: Mikey Madison (Anora)
Shoulda been nominated: Maisy Stella (My Old Ass)
Best actor (comedy or musical)
It’s a far less competitive year for men in musicals and comedies (there’s not a single guy here who is from the former), so this one could go a few ways. The outsider here would be Saturday Night’s Gabriel LaBelle, a real filler of a pick for a film that has sunk since the fall festival circuit last year. And while Jesse Plemons might have won best actor at Cannes for his role in Kinds of Kindness, it would feel like an unlikely repeat here, given how the film has rather disappeared. It would be fun to see Hugh Grant pick up the win for his wonderfully horrible performance in Heretic (a horror movie that cynically campaigned as a comedy to ensure a nom) but I would ultimately put it down to the final three. The least likely of those might then be A Real Pain’s Jesse Eisenberg, who has ceded the stage to his co-star Kieran Culkin, the film’s major awards chance. It’s then between A Different Man’s Sebastian Stan (also nominated in the drama category for The Apprentice) and Hit Man’s Glen Powell. As much as the Globes might have changed, I just can’t see something as strange and mean-spirited as A Different Man getting a Globe, so I think the undeniable charisma of Powell will win out.
Will win: Glen Powell (Hit Man)
Should win: Hugh Grant (Heretic)
Shoulda been nominated: Ian McKellen (The Critic)
Best supporting actress
Best supporting actress has always been one of the Globesiest Globes categories in that it has allowed for a string of glamorous actors to grace the stage who have often failed to then triumph at the Oscars (Julia Roberts, Winona Ryder, Kate Hudson, Natalie Portman and Jennifer Lawrence among them). This year has a pop star showdown, with Emilia Pérez’s Selena Gomez and Wicked’s Ariana Grande competing, a dream for the Globes given the bump that both respective fanbases will likely add to the ratings. But Gomez is an unlikely choice here, along with The Brutalist’s Felicity Jones, The Substance’s Margaret Qualley and Conclave’s Isabella Rossellini. Grande has a strong chance but I think she might lose out to Gomez’s co-star Zoe Saldaña, whose performance, which is arguably a lead, dominates the most-awarded film of the night and would make the most sense for a reward.
Will win: Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Should win: Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
Shoulda been nominated: Trine Dyrholm (The Girl with the Needle)
Best supporting actor
Finally, an easy one! Ever since it premiered at Sundance last year, the smartest pundits have had their money on A Real Pain’s Kieran Culkin. He’s another arguable lead involved in a bit of category fraud (what would an awards race be without it?) but his role here makes for a perfect Succession follow-up for voters (last year saw him winning for best actor in a drama series). His trajectory this season has followed that of The Holdovers’ Da’Vine Joy Randolph last year, winning pretty much everything in the lead-up and a strong bet to win both here and at the Oscars. He’s not likely to be threatened by A Complete Unknown’s Edward Norton or The Apprentice’s Jeremy Strong or The Brutalist’s Guy Pearce or Anora’s Yura Borisov but there could be an argument made for a Denzel Washington spoiler. The actor, who has won three Globes and been nominated another nine times, is the starriest of the bunch, and while Gladiator II has had a mixed reception, his performance hasn’t. I’d still pick Culkin for the night’s easiest win, though.
Will win: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Should win: Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
Shoulda been nominated: Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside)
Best director
One of the most interesting races here, removing some of the year’s bigger names and films such as Gladiator II’s Ridley Scott, Wicked’s Jon M Chu and Dune: Part Two’s Denis Villeneuve – instead we have a range of lesser-known names battling it out. The Globes has improved in recent years with female representation, including film-makers who even the Oscars snubbed (Regina King, Celine Song, Greta Gerwig, Maggie Gyllenhaal). But still, the inclusion of two non-American women here feels like a major milestone, even if The Substance’s Coralie Fargeat and All We Imagine as Light’s Payal Kapadia are unlikely to win. It also feels like Conclave’s Edward Berger is out of the race (as loved as the film is, it’s perhaps not viewed as a directorial triumph), which leaves it to three contenders. As impressive as it might be as a technical achievement, Anora and its director, Sean Baker, may suffer in comparison with his two main competitors in terms of scale. It will probably then be down to Emilia Pérez’s Jacques Audiard and The Brutalist’s Brady Corbet, and I think, by a whisker, Corbet will win out, the film a far less divisive option.
Will win: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
Should win: Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine As Light)
Shoulda been nominated: Jane Schoenbrun (I Saw the TV Glow)
Source: theguardian.com
