win 2024 Grammy Awards: Predictions for the top categories and deserving winners.

Estimated read time 10 min read

Record of the year

Jon Batiste – Worship

Boygenius is insufficiently powerful.
Miley Cyrus – Flowers

“What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish.

The song “On My Mama” by Victoria Monét.
Olivia Rodrigo – Vampire
Taylor Swift – Anti-Hero
SZA – Kill Bill

The UK government’s women and equalities committee has made a convincing argument that the music industry continues to be unequal. However, there seems to be progress in terms of recognition for women at award ceremonies. More than half of the nominations at this year’s Brit awards feature women, and the top categories at the Grammys have even more female representation. Only one male artist, Jon Batiste, is nominated for the top prize of record of the year (along with male producers and engineers), and his song “Worship” is considered the weakest among the nominees. The other songs all have their own merits, but Olivia Rodrigo’s “Vampire” makes a strong case for its transformation from a gentle piano ballad to an energetic showstopper in just three and a half minutes. However, with Taylor Swift’s immense cultural influence, it is not hard to imagine her dominating the awards this year.

Taylor Swift will be the victor – the Anti-Hero.

Olivia Rodrigo’s “Vampire” deserves to win.

Best album of the year.

Jon Batiste hosts a radio show focused on world music.
Boygenius – The Record
Miley Cyrus – Endless Summer Vacation

Did you know that there is an underground tunnel beneath Ocean Boulevard?

Reworded: The Era of Enjoyment by Janelle Monáe
Olivia Rodrigo – Guts
Taylor Swift – Midnights
SZA – SOS

While not on the same level of star power as last year’s Beyoncé vs Adele vs Harry vs Kendrick vs Bad Bunny showdown, this year’s album nominees include deeper and more challenging offerings. Most of the nominations for Record of the Year are repeated here. Miley Cyrus can be discounted, as her album lacked substance beyond its hit single “Flowers.” Batiste, who won this category in 2022, also falls short due to the Academy’s tendency to prioritize musicianship over songwriting. Janelle Monáe’s The Age of Pleasure is considered inconsequential. More deserving is Lana Del Rey’s Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd, which boasts grandeur that may appeal to the Academy. Taylor Swift’s Midnights does not break as much new ground as her previous category-winning albums, and she may lose votes from those who prefer Del Rey or two other strong albums by Olivia Rodrigo and Boygenius. This could potentially open the path for SOS by SZA, a standout mainstream American album that showcases human passion, error, frailty, and contradiction in all its complexity through her captivating storytelling and diverse musical styles. (Note: If Swift does win, she will be the first artist to win this category four times. Interestingly, her engineer Serban Ghenea would then hold the record with five wins, as he is also nominated for his work with Rodrigo.)

Will win SZA
Should win SZA

Miley Cyrus, nominated six times at this year’s Grammys.View image in fullscreen

Top song of the year

Lana Del Rey – A&W
Taylor Swift – Anti-Hero
Jon Batiste – Butterfly
Dua Lipa – Dance the Night
Miley Cyrus – Flowers
SZA – Kill Bill
Olivia Rodrigo – Vampire

“What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish

Another very similar lineup, though given this category’s celebration of lyrics and melody, it’s odd that Dance the Night is included, even if you (tenuously) argue that its lyrics are meant to be inane as part of Barbie’s satirical universe. That film’s What Was I Made For? is much more deserving, turning literal-minded plot references into a genuinely moving (and exquisitely produced) existential inquiry, and could maybe pip this. Swift’s “it’s me, hi, I’m the problem, it’s me” became a much-memed mantra for the knowingly self-involved, and while some lines have her tendency towards debate-team cleverness – “Did you hear my covert narcissism I disguise as altruism / Like some kind of congressman?” – she self-searches with enjoyably forensic accuracy. The Academy can be quite conservative and some voters might find the sprawling, provocative A&W downright weird, Vampire too sweary or balk at the violence in SZA’s ex-slaughtering Kill Bill – but the latter is a huge hit with brilliant storytelling and the most persuasive chorus melody here. Flowers will also be admired for its sturdy, classic craft but don’t discount Butterfly – sentimental, hackneyed and much less streamed than the rest it may be, my lip duly wobbled after hearing that it’s about Batiste’s cancer-beating wife, and Batiste is already well-liked by the Academy.

The winner will be Taylor Swift, who will play the role of an anti-hero.
Should win Olivia Rodrigo – Vampire

Victoria Monét performing in October 2023 – the R&B star is up for seven awards.View image in fullscreen

Best new artist

Gracie Abrams
Fred Again
Ice Spice
Jelly Roll
Coco Jones
Noah Kahan
Victoria Monét
The War and Treaty

Having a successful hit can greatly benefit you in this particular category. With her natural star quality evident in her still stance and powerful New York drill flow, Ice Spice would be a deserving winner with her chart-topping songs such as “Boy’s a Liar” and “In Ha Mood”. However, the Academy has a tendency to favor more traditional rap music and often overlooks the most current, club-friendly, and street-savvy MCs. While Fred Again may not have fully broken into the mainstream yet, he is well-known among voters for his extensive behind-the-scenes work. Noah Kahan’s popular and uplifting album “Stick Season” has gained global success, but surprisingly he was not recognized in other categories, even within his own genre. Other strong contenders in the country/Americana scene like Jelly Roll and The War and Treaty may also draw votes away from Kahan. In recent years, young women have performed well in this category, with surprising wins from artists like Alessia Cara and Samara Joy. This year, Gracie Abrams’ trendy and emotionally-charged music has little competition within the same genre. However, the likely winner will be Victoria Monét, as the Academy will be captivated by her journey from songwriter (for artists like Ariana Grande) to taking the spotlight herself. This is also a prime opportunity to recognize her without facing tough competition from SZA in the R&B categories. And let’s not forget about the music itself – Monét’s sensually rich production may overpower lesser artists, but her skill as a songwriter ensures that each song is elevated with clever lyrics and unexpected chord changes.

Victoria Monét will be the winner.

Ice Spice deserves to win.

Top solo performance in the pop genre.

Miley Cyrus – Flowers

“Paint the Town Red” by Doja Cat
Billie Eilish – What Was I Made For?
Olivia Rodrigo – Vampire
Taylor Swift – Anti-Hero

The most intense competition of the evening, with each song being extremely popular. The talented Doja Cat can intimidate anyone with just a look from a hundred feet away, but she seemed at ease singing “Paint the Town Red” and it may not be enough to beat the other contenders. Objectively speaking, “Flowers” has been the biggest hit and there is a possibility that Miley Cyrus will receive votes from Academy members who want to spread the love in these closely contested categories, especially since she has never won a Grammy before. However, it is likely that Taylor Swift will once again come out on top, receiving recognition from the industry after her incredibly successful “Eras” tour.

“Anti-Hero” will be the winner of Taylor Swift.
Weekend

Olivia Rodrigo should be the winner over Vampire Weekend.

Best rap performance

Baby Keem and Kendrick Lamar – The Hillbillies

This piece is titled “Love Letter” by Black Thought.
Drake and 21 Savage – Rick Flex

Killer Mike collaborates with André 3000, Future, and Eryn Allen Kane on “Scientists and Engineers”.
Coi Leray – Players

Some disappointing submissions are present. While 21 Savage and Drake are both talented, Rich Flex lacks coherence and direction, a problem also found in Scientists & Engineers despite the impressive MCs involved. Each track feels like navigating through a confusing one-way system. Coi Leray’s Players is a well-rounded track, but it’s also uneventful, overly nostalgic, and lacking in creative lyrics or performance. The standout track is Black Thought’s Love Letter: a guaranteed hit at the Grammys, with an a cappella freestyle that pays homage to the entire history of hip-hop. The Roots MC defies any “oldhead” criticism with his raw delivery and ever-changing flow. However, it’s not widely heard, leaving the deserving winner, The Hillbillies, in the shadows. This track has interesting and unique production, with samples from Brit-jazz hero Alabaster DePlume’s Visit Croatia, which was previously sampled by Bon Iver. The dynamic between cousins Lamar and Baby Keem, as they seduce their partners and exchange dating advice, is like a grand screwball comedy. Baby Keem charmingly says, “Shorty says she’s celibate, but I’ll keep hoping,” while Kendrick confidently declares to the camera, “She’s not!”

The winners will be Baby Keem and Kendrick Lamar for “The Hillbillies” category.

Baby Keem and Kendrick Lamar should be the winners for “The Hillbillies”.

Best rock performance

The band known as Arctic Monkeys has released a song titled “Sculptures of Anything Goes”.

Rewritten: Black Pumas’ “More Than a Love Song”

The boy genius lacks sufficient strength.
Foo Fighters – Rescued
Metallica – Lux Æterna

Phoebe Bridgers, known for her emotional and expressive style, is a major influence in the world of rock music. Her supergroup, Boygenius, is a strong contender for this award due to their compelling blend of alternative coolness and mainstream appeal in their song “Not Strong Enough”. While the Foo Fighters and Metallica also have noteworthy songs, they lack the same cultural relevance. The Black Pumas’ hit “More Than a Love Song” is highly praised but ultimately falls short in comparison to Arctic Monkeys’ “Sculptures of Anything Goes”, a haunting ballad reminiscent of a Bond film directed by Andrei Tarkovsky. In terms of vocal performance, Alex Turner’s delivery in this song is exceptional, with carefully selected and placed words.

The winner of Boygenius will be determined based on strength.

The winner should be Arctic Monkeys with their song “Sculptures of Anything Goes”.

Chris Stapleton performing at Super Bowl LVII in February 2023 – he is aiming at a fourth win for best country solo performance.View image in fullscreen

Top country solo performance

Tyler Childers – In Your Love
Brandy Clark – Buried
Luke Combs – Fast Car
Dolly Parton – The Last Thing on My Mind
Chris Stapleton – White Horse

This year, the top-quality works in this category encompass the full range of the genre and avoid any controversial political themes that have been making headlines. Despite facing competition from younger and trendier artists, Dolly Parton has a good chance of winning with her powerful rendition of “The Last Thing on My Mind,” delivering a heartfelt performance that conveys tenderness and regret while also showcasing her unwavering determination. Tyler Childers and Brandy Clark both demonstrate their unwavering love through beautifully crafted songs, with Childers incorporating synth and pedal steel into his composition and Clark delivering a heart-wrenching pop-bluegrass arrangement. Luke Combs achieved great success with his cover of Tracy Chapman’s “Fast Car,” but there was some discomfort over the fact that Chapman (a Black, queer woman) still faces struggles in the country music world while Combs thrives. However, Chapman spoke positively about Combs’ cover, which perfectly captures the essence of the working-class narrative in a subtly country-influenced arrangement without overselling it like many other cover versions tend to do. Meanwhile, three-time winner Chris Stapleton delivered one of the best songs of the year in any category with “White Horse.” This powerful country-rock track, often used in advertisements for gas-guzzling pickup trucks, showcases Stapleton’s incredible vocal range and adds a rugged edge to his already impressive sound. However, the lyrics subvert the traditional male country ideal, revealing a sense of panic and unease about living up to these expectations.

“Fast Car” by Luke Combs is the winner.

The winner of the award is Chris Stapleton with his song “White Horse.”

Source: theguardian.com

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